Pakistan vs Afghanistan Betting Winner Prediction
Recommended Bet: Back Pakistan to win @ 1.8 or more in Live Betting with Pure Win.
The dilemma is a similar one to the one we faced ahead of India vs Pakistan in that the pre-match odds in question were similar to what they are here with Pakistan 1.53 and Afghanistan 2.4.
Who are the better side pound for pound? Pakistan.
That’s obvious but we simply can’t ignore the toss bias that says chasing is a big advantage here.
You’ll remember that last time the recommended bet was to back Pakistan (still as outsiders) but only if they chased. They did, and won.
The slight difference here though is that Pakistan are arguably the best bowling side at the tournament and Afghanistan’s batting can’t be trusted the way that of Pakistan, India or even Sri Lanka can.
Chasing around 165, Afghanistan can get probably get home in a chase, more than that and maybe not.
So we’ll trust Pakistan to win one way or another even if it means batting first, but not at the current odds.
We’ll hope that they’re in a spot of bother, hope they reach 1.8 in Live Betting and trust them to show their greater class and experience.
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Pakistan vs Afghanistan Odds for Hot Bet
Recommended Bet: Back Mujeeb Ur Rahman to be Afghanistan Top Bowler @ 4.33 with Betway.
As any cricket fan will know, Rashid Khan is right up there with the very best T20 bowlers in the world game.
As it happens, his current ranking is 3 rather than 1 in the ICC rankings but you get the point.
However, batsmen have seen so much of him over the last few years in international cricket, the Big Bash, IPL and other tournaments that he’s not quite the wicket-taker he used to be.
While his economy rate is still brilliant (part of the reason why his ranking is so good), he just doesn’t claim as many wickets any more.
He’s still the 3.25 favourite for Afghanistan top bowler and that’s understandable.
But at 4.33 you can back Mujeeb Ur Rahman, who’s been in fine form this Asia Cup and taken seven wickets to Khan’s four so far. He’s worth a gamble.
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Pakistan’s Recent Form
Whatever happens for the rest of the Asia Cup, Pakistan proved that their rare win against India at the last World Cup wasn’t a one-off.
How good was the win, though?
Well, on the plus side they chased a big total against a good attack, kept their nerve under pressure to win it with just one ball to spare and fielded pretty well, including not dropping any catches and rarely misfielding.
Mohammad Rizwan is in superb form with the bat after top-scoring for the third match in a row and man-of-the-match Mohammad Nawaz did the lot: bowled well, took three good catches and played a blinder (42 off 20) with the bat, after being promoted.
On the flipside, they did win chasing which just about everyone has managed so far.
Whether they can beat India batting first one of these days remains to be seen but that’s a discussion for another day.
They also need to be more disciplined with their bowling. It’s a huge crime to concede 10 wides in a T20 innings and next time it could be the difference between winning and losing.
Skipper Babar Azam, one of the most reliable batsmen in the world in any format, has had scores of just 10, 9 and 14 so far. You’d think that sooner or later he’ll come good, though.
Pakistan’s Likely XI
Rizwan, Azam, Zahman, Ahmed, K Shah, A Ali, S Khan, Nawaz, Rauf, N Shah, Hasnain.
Afghanistan’s Recent Form
Like everyone else so far, they found out the consequences of being on the wrong side of a toss.
After chasing and winning their first two matches, they were forced to defend this time.
Despite putting on a very competitive total of 175/6 mostly thanks to an innings of 84 off 45 from R Gurbaz, they couldn’t defend it against a Sri Lanka side who clearly loves to chase.
Skipper Mohammad Nabi and Mujeeb Ur Rahman were good with spin but the two pacers were expensive.
But what really cost them the match was Rashid Khan’s bad day at the office. He may have taken a wicket but the 39 runs he conceded off four overs was ultimately the difference.
Not what you’d expect from their best player and most likely matchwinner.
They’ll need to win this to stay in with a chance of progressing.
Afghanistan’s Likely XI
Zazai, Gurbaz, I Zadran, N Zadran, Janta, Nabi, Khan, Shinwari, Ul Haq, Rahman, Farooqi.
Pakistan vs Afghanistan Head-to-Head
The men in green are 2-0 up on the Pakistan vs Afghanistan head-to-head. Their first win was back in 2014, their second a nail-biting chase at last year’s World Cup, where only some very late six-hitting got Pakistan over the line in a match they could easily have lost.
Venue & Conditions
We’re at Sharjah for this one.
There have been three matches here so far.
One of them we can pretty much discount because it was Pakistan vs Hong Kong.
With all due respect to HK, they’re not in the same class as the other sides in the Asia Cup so we shouldn’t read too much into that huge Pakistan win.
More significantly, the other two games followed the trend of Dubai in being won by the chaser, but in somewhat different types of games.
Afghanistan chased just 128 against Bangladesh and Sri Lanka chased a far stiffer 176 against Afghanistan.
Conclusions? It’s tricky to predict what a par score is but with much shorter boundaries than at Dubai, you can get to 180 batting first if players get in and make use of the short boundaries.
What’s far clearer is that chasing is the way to go here.