India vs Sri Lanka Betting Winner Prediction
Recommended Bet: Back Sri Lanka to win if they chase @ 3.1 or more with Pure Win.
Our approach in India’s defeat to Pakistan showed the value of having a good betting plan based on stats, insight and knowledge of conditions.
We decided that we’d only play the winner market if Pakistan chased and that we wouldn’t play at all if India chased. Pakistan chased, we bet them post-toss in Live Betting and we won at 2.3.
On another day Pakistan may not have got home in what was an extremely tight match.
But the point was that it was the toss bias in Dubai that determined how to go about things above all other factors.
Given it’s now 16 out of the last 17 that have been won by the chaser in Dubai after Pakistan’s win on Sunday, we have to stick with a similar strategy.
Unless Sri Lanka post over 200 batting first, they’re unlikely to be able to defend whatever they score.
Sure, we could back India if they chase and they’ll probably win.
But if they’re 1.33 pre-toss, they’ll be about 1.25 post-toss if they get to chase and that’s no price to be backing anyone in a T20 match.
So we’ll stick with the same approach as last time: back Sri Lanka if they chase (at around 3.1) and not bet at all if they bat first.
They’ve now nailed two tough chases in a row and this isn’t a vintage India bowling line-up, so if they get to bat second, they’ll have a very good chance at favourable odds.
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India vs Sri Lanka Odds for Hot Bet
Recommended Bet: Back Ravi Bishnoi to be India Top Bowler @ 4.33 with Betway.
Ravi Bishnoi did his absolute best to win the game for India on Sunday, hitting eight off just two balls and then bowling 1- 26, the best economy rate of anyone for India.
He’s been in superb form since breaking into the side.
In his last five matches, he’s taken 11 wickets including taking at least one in every match, two on three occasions and a quite brilliant 4-16 in the West Indies.
As we know from our top bowler guide, it’s generally an advantage to bowl in the death overs and he doesn’t.
But he ticks plenty of other boxes such as being in good form, always bowling his four overs, having a good strike rate and crucially, being available at good odds of 4.33.
Let’s go with Bishnoi.
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India’s Recent Form
Defeat to Pakistan on Sunday means India are up against it.
After cruising through the first Group Stage and being hot favourites to win this year’s Asia Cup, they’re now almost in a situation where they can’t afford to lose either of their last two games.
In truth, they didn’t do too much wrong against Pakistan.
They put on a good total of 181/7, although it is true that the middle-order of Sky Yadav, Deepak Hooda, Rishabh Pant and Hardik Pandya never got going, meaning they probably fell about 10-15 runs short of what they may have got after a blistering start.
Once again it was left to Virat Kohli to steer the ship with a good 60 off 44, after Rohit Sharma and KL Rahul smashed early boundaries, before getting out in quick succession.
With the ball, Arshdeep Singh and Ravi Bishnoi were good and economical but the rest weren’t.
Singh may ultimately have cost them the game, not with poor bowling, but with a dropped catch at a vital time; on such things are games won and lost.
But we shouldn’t be too harsh. Chasing is always a huge advantage in Dubai, so it proved once again.
A fair assessment is that the coin toss was ultimately the most important factor of all, more so than how the players from either side performed on the night.
Despite the defeat, they may stick with the same side again unless they bring back Dinesh Karthik for Pant.
India’s Likely XI
Sharma, Rahul, Kohli, Yadav, Pandya, Karthik, Hooda, Kumar, Bishnoi, Singh, Chahal.
Sri Lanka’s Recent Form
They’ve now successfully chased two very competitive totals: first against Bangladesh in their do-or-die second Group match and then against Afghanistan to get themselves off to the best possible start in the Super Four stage.
It’s clear that their strength is with the bat at the moment and it’s even clearer that they’re a side made to chase rather than bat first.
With the ball Hasaranga was good as usual; he may not have taken a wicket this time but an economy rate of 5.75 was like gold dust in a high-scoring match.
And for good measure, he also scored 16 off 9 in the chase, just when Sri Lanka were starting to feel the pressure.
All of Kusal Mendis, Danushka Gunathilaka and Bhanuka Rajapaksa made important contributions with the bat in that vital win
And they could make the final from this position if they win one of their two remaining matches, though it could easily come down to net run rate.
Sri Lanka’s Likely XI
Mendis, Nissanka, Asalanka, Gunathilaka, Rajapaksa, Shanaka, Hasaranga, Fernando, Kanuratne,Theekshana, Madushanka.
India vs Sri Lanka Head-to-Head
On India vs Sri Lanka head-to-head in T20Is, it’s Rohit Sharma and co who are streets ahead, currently 17-7 up.
Back in February, India beat them 3-0 in a three-match Series in India, though in July last year Sri Lanka won a Series 2-1 at home.
Venue & Conditions
If you’ve been following our previews here on the Asia Cup, you should know what’s coming next.
It’s now 16 of the last 17 matches that have been won by the chaser here in Dubai and let’s just say that can no longer be considered a coincidence.
True that quite a few of those, including Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka and India vs Pakistan were pretty close games, but the side batting first always seems to get there in the end.
First innings scores have been considerably higher and the team batting first will see 180 as their target. But as we know, that may not be enough.