England vs New Zealand Betting Winner Prediction
Recommended Bet: Back New Zealand to win @ 3.0 with Betway.
The key question ahead of any cricket bet is not: what do I think will happen?
But rather: which selections offer the best value for my money? Or to look at it another way: which odds are bigger than they should be?
You can read our guide to betting value, what it means and why it’s so important in our guide to betting value.
And in this case, it’s New Zealand who are the value at 3.0 rather than England at 2.25 or the draw at 3.2.
The draw can be discounted for three reasons.
One: there’s very little rain so we shouldn’t lose many overs to it.
Two: there have been just two draws in the last nine matches here.
Three: there have been some sub-200 first innings scores here which negates the chances of a draw and means we’re far more likely to get a result.
England’s results these last 18 months have been awful and there’s no guarantee that just because they changed captain and coach, things are going to miraculously change.
Contrast that with New Zealand who beat England 1-0 in the Series here last summer, went on to beat India in the WTC final and have been decent ever since.
This is a group of players who have been together for a while now, know their roles and are far more consistent. Not to mention, available at far bigger odds. So New Zealand it is.
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England’s Recent Form
England’s struggles in Test cricket over the past year and a half or so have been well-documented.
This is the team who lost a home Series to New Zealand last summer, were 2-1 down against India before the fifth Test was suspended (it will be played this summer, instead), were thrashed in the Ashes and then lost an away Series in the West Indies, played in March this year.
The stat that keeps being brought up time and again is this one: England have won just one of their last 17 Tests.
That’s an awful record for a side who prides itself on being one of the few nations who gives priority to Test cricket over the other formats.
In that series against the West Indies they drew the first two Tests on benign pitches and fluffed their lines in the Third Test.
They were guilty of not getting enough runs in the first innings (just 204), letting the Windies off the hook when they batted themselves (who got 297) and then saving the worst for last, being bowled out in their second innings for just 120.
So they come into this Series in truly dire form.
But there’s been plenty of change since that.
Ben Stokes is the new captain and former New Zealand skipper Brendon McCullum is England’s new Test match coach.
England’s Likely XI
Lees, Crawley, Pope, Root, Stokes, Bairstow, Foakes, Overton, Broad, Leach, Anderson.
New Zealand’s Recent Form
The last time New Zealand were in action was when they were drawing with South Africa 1-1 at home.
In the First Test it was two excellent bowling performances that won them the game, twice bowling out a decent SA batting line-up for less than 120.
But the Proteas and Kagiso Rabada in particular bit back, the paceman taking eight wickets in the game.
Before that they ‘only’ drew 1-1 at home against Bangladesh, the Tigers causing a big upset in the First test before New Zealand won the second, mostly on the back of Tom Latham’s 252 in the first innings.
And before that (Nov-Dec 2021) they lost 1-0 in India, securing a creditable draw in the First Test.
So a mixed bag of results but let’s not forget New Zealand won the inaugural World Test Championship just under a year ago here in England, beating India in the final.
Fast bowler Trent Boult Is unlikely to feature after only just arriving from India where he was playing for the Rajasthan Royals.
New Zealand’s Likely XI
Latham, Conway, Williamson, Mitchell, Blundell, de Grandhomme, Jamieson, Southee, Wagner, Henry, Patel.
England vs New Zealand Head-to-Head
In terms of England vs New Zealand head-to-head, these two have played each other 107 times in Tests since their first meeting in 1930.
And it’s very much advantage England, who won 48 of them. There were 47 draws and just 12 wins for the Black Caps.
But if we take a look at games played over the last 10 years, it’s New Zealand who are ahead: four wins for them, three for England and four draws.
Looking at matches played on English soil, 56 of them, and it’s very much advantage England. Won 30, drew 20 and lost just six.
When they played last year, the First test was a draw after a brilliant 200 on debut from man-of-the-match Devon Conway, England holding out for a draw on Day Five.
But New Zealand were too good in the Second Test, dismissing England for just 122 in the third innings and chasing down a low fourth innings total with minimum fuss in the Edgbaston sunshine.
Venue & conditions
England have played eight times at Lord’s in the last five years, the only opponent they played there twice in that period being India.
And England’s record has been good here, beating South Africa, the West Indies, India and Ireland, while drawing with Australia and New Zealand.
They lost to India (2021) and Pakistan (2018).
So the hosts actually haven’t won here in their last three attempts, losing two and drawing one.
In none of the last three Tests was 400 runs reached in any innings, though there were a few scores of just over 370.
So a good strategy might be to go under 400 runs on the innings runs market, especially if the team batting first makes a good start.
The weather is pretty fair for the first three days with only a very outside chance of rain.
There could however be some rain on Thursday so there might be the odd interruption there but then it’s good again on Friday. So rain shouldn’t spoil the match.